Crime Edition: Measurement, Clearance, and Prevention
No. 137 — Aug. 10-Aug. 16, 2025
This week, President Donald Trump issued an executive order declaring a "crime emergency" in the District of Columbia, sparking nationwide discourse about crime and law enforcement as he brings federal personnel and National Guard into the city to combat a "surge in violent crime."
Although some may quibble about where exactly Washington, DC ranks among the most dangerous cities of America or how the crime compares to historic rates, two of the questions raised can be applied to the analysis of any jurisdiction, including here in North Carolina: how crime is counted, and whether a "surge" or increase in law enforcement resources can produce a significant positive effect on public safety.
Measuring Crime
Since no measure of crime can be omniscient, efforts like the FBI's Uniform Crime Reporting Program to measure crime suffer from limitations tied to their very nature. The UCR relies on reporting by local law enforcement agencies, which can put their thumb on the scale, and is limited to "crimes brought to their attention."
Homicide is most likely to make it into law enforcement crime statistics, but the rate of reporting for other categories of crime is significantly lower, with a report from the DOJ's National Crime Victimization Survey suggesting that only 47.2% of violent victimizations and 41.6% of property victimizations in North Carolina in 2020-2022 were reported to the police.
The NCVS indicates that the rate of crime reporting by victims can even vary widely within the same category of crime based on location, with only an estimated 13% of rape/sexual assault victimizations being reported in urban areas, compared to 52% in rural areas nationwide.
The percentage of crime reported can also vary based on the trust of the victim that the police can or will take action based on the report, creating a paradoxical effect in which underpoliced cities with high crime may have a lower reporting rate than jurisdictions with lower crime and sufficient law enforcement presence.
Anecdotally, I can report that I would be less likely to report a property crime victimization that occurred in Durham than if it occurred in Wake Forest.
Per the NCVS data, approximately 26.7% of the unreported violent victimizations in 2023 were not reported because the victim believed the "police could not or would not do anything to help." An additional 3.8% reported "fear of reprisal" as the reason they did not report, which could also be interpreted as lack of confidence in law enforcement.
Crime: Reaction vs Prevention
The mission of law enforcement is essentially reactive, responding to and investigating crimes which have already committed. However, vigorous enforcement of the law has the possibility to reduce crime in the general public both by striking fear in the hearts of would-be criminals, and by keeping repeat criminals out of the general population by imprisonment and, on occasion, death.
The criminal terror element may be harder to quantify, but we do have statistics on the percentage of crime attributable to to criminals with prior convictions. According to a 2023 study by the North Carolina Sentencing and Policy Advisory Commission, at least 75% of felony convictions in the year analyzed had a prior conviction.
Looking at the other end of prison sentences, a report by the same commission found that 44% of released prisoners had been arrested again within two years of release, and that 48% of those recidivists had been arrested at least twice in that period.
Unless one comes to the conclusion that repeat criminal behavior is caused by the justice system, these numbers paint a clear picture that a huge proportion of crime is committed by a relatively small number of repeat offenders.
Underpolicing, Overpolicing, or Just-Right Policing?
In addition to the crimes that are reported by citizens, police can discover crimes by patrolling or conducting other proactive measures.
In a hypothetical world, there is a saturation point at which adding more law enforcement resources to look for criminal activity and investigate the crimes they discover or are reported to them would not result in more victims reporting crimes and more criminals being prosecuted and punished.
However, it appears from astonishingly low clearance rates (aka how many crimes are solved) that we are nowhere near that level of law enforcement in the Triangle.
According to data from the NC State Bureau of Investigation for select categories of "index offenses" in 2023, even the most highly prioritized crime of murder only had a clearance rate of 44%, while motor vehicle thefts had a clearance rate of only 3%, for a total clearance rate of 9% across the index offenses.
Considering the clearance data in light of the repeat offender and recidivism rates above, it seems likely that each criminal caught and prosecuted by the state is likely responsible for prior unsolved crimes, and would likely be committing additional unsolved crimes in the future if not incarcerated in jail or prison.
In light of the musings and data above, the crimes reported on below will be analyzed through the lens of whether the crime(s) in question would be in reported crime numbers, and the proactivity of law enforcement in identifying and arresting the perpetrators.
Undercover sting results in eight drug-related arrests
ALE Investigation Targets Drug Activity at Convenience Stores in Raleigh - Press Release
Eight people arrested in major Raleigh drug bust, over 100 felony charges - WRAL
An investigation into the sale of fentanyl and cocaine outside Raleigh convenience stores has resulted a total of 101 felony charges for 8 defendants, including for dealing drugs within 1000 feet of Wake Young Men's Leadership Academy in Raleigh.
According to a NC Department of Public Safety press release, undercover NC Alcohol Law Enforcement agents identified individuals selling drugs in the parking lots of ABC-licensed establishments, and search warrants were executed at two Raleigh residences resulting in the seizure of fentanyl, cocaine, methamphetamine, and marijuana.
Arrestees:
• Prince Anthonee-India Taylor, 37, of Raleigh: 43 felonies, 3 misdemeanors
• Felicia Lynn Coovert, 23, of Louisburg: 12 felonies
• Ginger Michelle Kendrick, 23, of Mebane: 8 felonies, 1 misdemeanor
• Kaitlyn Johnette Street, 24, of Fuquay Varina: 11 felonies, 2 misdemeanors
• Tatyana Olivia Groves, 21, of Raleigh: 9 felonies, 1 misdemeanor
• Miah Shaleigh Lewis, 25, of Raleigh: 11 felonies, 1 misdemeanor
• Mykelti Fredrick Wynn, 32, of Raleigh: 6 felonies, 2 misdemeanors
• Christopher Rodricuz Brewington, 35, of Raleigh: 1 felony, 1 misdemeanor
Based on the information available, it does appear that the law enforcement agents were tipped off to the sale of the drugs; however, if they had not been proactive in tracking the initial dealer back to his supplier(s) it seems likely this would have only been counted as perhaps one offense.
Statutory rapist caught with child pornography days after finishing 12-year statutory rape sentence
Registered sex offender Joshua Allen Morgan, 38, has been charged with one count of second-degree sexual exploitation of a minor after Wake County Probation and Parole found child sexual assault material on his phone involving girls aged 10-12 during a probation check, according to the Wake County Sheriff's Office.
In 2013, Morgan had been charged in Wake Superior Court with three counts of statutory rape of a girl under 16 when he was 26, and was sentenced to 12-19 years in prison after pleading down to attempted statutory rape.
Morgan had only been released from confinement eight days prior to his August 13 arrest, according to NC Department of Public Safety records.
In this case, it appears that Morgan's (alleged) criminal activity immediately after release would likely have never been reported or identified without the proactive law enforcement activity in enforcing probation conditions by searching his phone in response to his previous conviction.
Raleighites complain of homeless harassment
Just how much of a blight are the homeless encampments in Raleigh? That's the question raised by a user on the r/Raleigh reddit forum:
Anyone else live very close to a large homeless camp? - Reddit (@Unusual-Horse-7709)
I hope this post doesn't get too controversial, but it's getting to a point where I no longer want to work in my garden when I'm home alone. More people have been approaching our home lately. Me, my partner, and even his mom on separate occasions have been asked for things. We've had multiple things stolen, mostly small, but with kids things get left outside.
Do you have a homeless camp within a block or two of your home, and if so, how do you deal with it?
Unusual-Horse-7709 on Reddit
The post attracted a number of posters on the left-leaning site confirming the initial poster's intuition, sharing their own views on expanding homeless camps and the dangerous environments they are creating:
I wouldn’t say a camp, but I’ve noticed a sudden large increase of a homeless population at the Townridge shopping center on Glenwood. (link)
We are close to new Bern [sic] and there has been a significant increase in homeless people everywhere here. At every corner, every fast food place, every store, some are very aggressive and will hit the car windows or kick your tires if you ignore them. It’s sad (link)
Not much you can do other than make sure you are always aware of your surroundings. I always make sure to have my phone on me at all times when I'm outside. I've also gotten really comfortable with saying no and holding my ground. Although, if I see someone walking down the street I'll go inside well before they notice since I don't want them to follow me to my door. As a woman I'm just hyper vigilant about my surroundings anyway.
Tbf the homeless camp near me has always been there it's just gotten a lot bigger over the last few years so it isn't something so shocking to me. Not much you can really do though, just lock your stuff up and get comfortable with saying no and never answer the door when someone knocks. (link)
The homeless camps have definitely been expanding and they're feeling bolder than they used to be. Like others have said, you have to get comfortable saying no and standing up straight. The overwhelming majority of these people are not dangerous They just know if they keep asking eventually somebody will cave and say yes.
If you can put up some type of fencing that would go a long way. Along with obvious cameras (even fake decoys would do), and no trespassing or soliciting signs (You can find some more aesthetically pleasing versions on Amazon or Etsy).
But if you firmly say no enough times they'll eventually figure it out and leave alone. There's only so much law enforcement can or should if they're not actually being dangerous and they'll likely be gone by the time they show up anyway. (link)
The ones along the greenways around Lake Raleigh have gotten worse, seemingly as well. Recession indicator, I guess. It really breaks my heart but some people are on drugs and have been violent to women along the trails. It's really a hard catch-22, because I believe everyone deserves resources and help, but it can be scary, and multiple people have been injured. (link)
Used to live right down the road from one. Don’t leave things in your car that have value. I used to leave coins in my console for small change transactions. That ONE time that I forgot to lock my door in my driveway, they ransacked my car. The only thing of value was the coins and a bag that I kept in the backseat that had a flashlight, medical kit, air pump and a NOCO jumpstart battery. That stuff probably ended up at a pawn shop. (link)
I used to work in CH off the 15-501 exit coming off of I-40, and for a couple months there was a man, woman, young boy (probably 5ish) and toddler/baby girl panhandling along the interstate ramp. A TODDLER. Walking around with the cars and everything there. I was at the stop light one day (one of the last days I saw them) and the adult male rushed up to my window and banged on it and started yelling at me asking if I took photos of his kids (my phone was in the diaper bag in the back seat). I yelled at him to get away from me and my car, and never saw them again after that day. Let me add - I have lived my entire life in the healthcare field and outside of work, have helped people in moments of crisis, I’ve given my share of food and money, taken a local transient into Food Lion for a few groceries, and usually carried little “go bags” in my car for people on the side of the road. After that, and after having my baby, I can’t risk it anymore. There’s too much violence in Raleigh-area now, it’s not like Burlington (where I grew up). (link)
If one was to take a critical position, all of the crime and violence associated with homeless encampments could be attributed to the lack of law enforcement, given that the the police and/or the city are aware of the environment they create, yet continue to tolerate them.
When police eventually do act in response to the increase in crimes associated with an encampment, they merely force the inhabitants to move to a new location instead of ensuring the perpetrators are prosecuted in court for their depredations.
Previous coverage:
Triangle Town Center homeless camp to be shut down by law enforcement? (No. 63 — Mar. 16, 2024)
45 tons of garbage cleared from shut-down Raleigh homeless camp (No. 69 — Apr. 27, 2024)
Raleigh's most dangerous greenway? Woman "randomly" assaulted near location of cyclist's 2020 murder (Original article — Nov. 27, 2024)
No arrests after fights, shooting at Southeast Raleigh high school
Calls for action following fights and gunfire after football game at Southeast Raleigh High School - WRAL
Shooting breaks out during Southeast Raleigh High School football event - CBS17
The principal of Southeast Raleigh Magnet High School reported no injuries and no arrests (as of yet) after a Friday night football game at the school campus ended with "multiple fights" in the parking lot and shots fired.
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The Raleigh Police are investigating, even if they are able to identify and charge the shooter, it is unlikely that they will be able to identify, prosecute, and report each incident criminal activity during the "multiple fights" which escalated into shots being fired.
Nearly two years ago, a Southeast Raleigh student was charged with murder after fatally stabbing a classmate who attacked him in the halls, which apparently followed from previous "bullying" and altercations including one in which the alleged knifeman's grandmother brandished a firearm at a group of teenagers. The then-14-year-old Tyquan General Jr. is currently out on bail awaiting the conclusion of the charges, which have been moved to adult court.
Johnston County man accused of killing father
Son Charged With Murder Of Father - JoCo Report
Johnston County man arrested, accused of murdering father at hotel, sheriff says - ABC11
David Lamont White, 20, of Angier has been charged with murder after his father Anthony Lee White was found dead of a gunshot wound at a Sleep Inn in Garner where the elder White lived and worked.
There appears to have been little information released so far, limiting our speculation/insight, but it does not appear that the younger White has previous criminal cases in the NC eCourts system, suggesting a clean prior record.
15-year-old charged with murdering family at aunt's birthday party at Lillington home
15-year-old charged with murder of aunt, uncle, grandmother at Harnett County home - WRAL
Harnett County triple shooting victims identified as family; teen family member charged: Deputies - CBS17
15-Year-Old Charged in Harnett County Triple Murder of Family Members, Two Retired U.S. Army Veterans - NC Beat
Ja’kerrion Cunningham, 15, has been charged with fatally shooting his aunt, uncle, and grandmother during a birthday party at a home in Harnett County.
According to law enforcement, Cunningham had been taken in by his aunt and uncle Danny and Sabrina Richards only to murder them on Tuesday, as well as his grandmother Clara Richards.
After fleeing the scene in a vehicle, deputies tracked him down and arrested him in the woods near Spring Lake.
The term ‘homeless’ needs to disappear. They are junkies.